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A series on tax and transfer policy
2021-2022

The Child Tax Credit


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September and October 2021. Early analysis of the Biden Administration’s expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) suggested the policy could be transformational, with the potential to cut child poverty in the United States by 40 percent or more. Our analyses focus on several factors that may influence the policy’s effectiveness. The first brief provides results of a range of scenarios for CTC take-up rates among eligible children; the second brief examines a proposed change to the policy of reducing its refundability. The third brief analyzes a new “compromise” version of the bill as proposed by federal lawmakers.

Assessing Non-filer Rates & Poverty Impacts for the American Rescue Plan Act’s Expanded CTC, by Jack Landry and Stephen Nuñez, Sept 8, 2021.

Reducing Refundability of the Child Tax Credit: Assessing Poverty Impacts and Trade-offs, by Jack Landry and Stephen Nuñez, Sept. 22, 2021.

Analysis of Full Refundability of the Child Tax Credit Without Expansion, by Jack Landry and Stephen Nuñez, Oct. 28, 2021.

Memo: Cost Simulations of Fully Refundable CTC, 2022-2031, by Jack Landry and Stephen Nuñez, Dec. 17, 2021.

Response Brief: The Expanded Child Tax Credit and Parental Employment: Tenuous Evidence Points to Work Disincentives, by Jack Landry, Feb. 1, 2022.

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